German Chancellor Merz’s recent speech to fellow NATO members, in which he stated this, has been seen as the most obvious indicator of the changing nature of geopolitics and international power in recent times. In the same speech, he urged his fellow Europeans to beef up their military spending and prepare for a world where they could no longer rely on their traditional ally in the US to defend them from all incoming threats. 

But while the speech spelt out what some have already known since the return of Trump to the Oval Office, the words themselves do not hold much weight for the rest of the world in terms of immediate foreign policy changes.

The EU is heavily reliant on NATO for its defence strategy, and this will continue regardless of whether or not the US retains its role as the primary financier. What this does indicate, however, is that the Europeans are coming to terms with increased spending on defence once again, after decades of prioritisation of development and welfare. 

Hence, defence spending is likely to increase in the medium to long term, but the EU does not have much in the way of options to strategically realign itself in the changing equation. 

The European Union’s support of Ukraine and its general hostility towards Russia mean that it will find no favour in Putin or his administration. Putin has recently extended an olive branch, however, and has stated that he is prepared to repair Russia’s relationship with the Union. But unless there is peace in Ukraine, this will not be possible, and we know that President Putin has stuck to his maximalist position and will refuse to budge unless the war becomes untenable. Any positivity towards Russia will have to come at the cost of the EU backing down on Ukraine, which is not going to happen.

China, of course, is another option, but I do not see any cooperation beyond an expansion of trade, at least in the next decade. China is not trusted within European policymaking circles, and this is not likely to change even if the US is no longer the main protector. The only positive from this for the EU and China’s relationship will likely come in the form of increased trade, but that will be restricted to individual bilateral relationships, rather than an overall deepening of the European bloc’s economic partnership with Beijing.

The EU has to find its own feet in the new world order, but at the moment its new position might just be a rehash of the old one, with Brussels and European leaders going whichever way the US tells them to. Except now, this nexus will be tilted more heavily in Washington’s favour. Most European leaders (barring a few such as Spain’s brave prime minister) have shown that they are not quite ready to break away from the old US relationship, and will continue along the same path until it becomes completely impossible. A full breakdown of the relationship will only come about if the US does more to challenge the sovereignty of territories and states such as Greenland and Denmark.

Pay attention to former Dutch PM and current NATO chief Mark Rutte cosying up to the US even when the latter is threatening the territorial integrity of Denmark, and you will see that not many in the EU have the temerity to find a new way forward.

The ultimate outcome of this is most likely going to be a continuation of the status quo. For the next three years, President Trump is going to continue to browbeat allies and opponents alike, and the EU will continue to take it. It will increase spending on defence and perhaps even issue a strong statement or two, warning the US against unilateral decisions, but ultimately it will continue to toe the line, because it will not see any other options.